FiveThirtyEight sour on House Democrats’ chances in California

California Representatives David Valadao and Mike Garcia, two Republicans seeking re-election to the United States House of Representatives, are now favorites to win their respective races again, according to the latest predictions from FiveThirtyEight, an award-winning political opinion poll. many times.

Both races, which initially favored Republican candidates but had been trending blue for weeks, have shifted back to favoring the GOP in recent days. FiveThirtyEight is now giving Valadao, which runs in California’s 22nd district, 55% chance of winning; his odds of winning were 48% as late as Tuesday. Likewise, Garcia — who is running in California’s 27th district — now has 56% chance of winningwhile his odds just two days ago were also 48%.

FiveThirtyEight, which updates its predictions daily, does not explain why Valadao and Garcia’s odds of winning have increased so significantly this week. Either way, it may give Democratic congressional leaders heartburn. The party is expected to lose control of the lower house in next month’s midterm elections and rely on close races in California’s deep blue to bring them down.

The other two competitive House races in the state don’t look good for Democrats either. Michelle Steel, another Republican, is strongly favored to be re-elected in her race for California’s 45th district. John Duarte, the Republican candidate for the state’s 13th district, is currently expected to lose but has been gain territory on his Democratic opponent in recent days.

Together, these four races represent some of the tightest contests in the country. Heading into October, the Democrats appeared to be winning three of four, but with the sudden change in tide in the Valadao and Garcia races, the Democrats are now favored to win just one. There are just under four weeks left until the midterms, and if the trends currently seen in California play out in close races elsewhere, Democrats could suffer massive losses.

It is not uncommon for the ruling party to lose ground in Congress midway through a presidential term.

Inflation has been a thorn in Democrats’ side since food and gas prices began to soar earlier this year, and since the state of the economy is often a major concern for voters every election cycle, it could spell trouble for Democrats. month. However, the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States of abolish federal protections for abortion made the midterm elections closer than expected in the eyes of many pollsters. This decision, coupled with a few executive orders from President Joe Biden – one that cancel some student loan debt and another who pardons prior marijuana possession convictions — may help Democrats secure a few races they would otherwise have lost.

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